Every prediction since launch. Rows are inserted before the outcome exists and database triggers reject edits and deletes, so the embarrassing ones stay (the database owner could still change them; the triggers stop the app, not the owner). Hit rate counts only graded UP and DOWN calls; FLAT moves (under 0.1%), NO CALL hours and pending calls are counted separately and never mixed in.
model labelDoes not beat trading fees in testing. (v3-12h-logreg-20261104)
95% Wilson interval 39.6% to 89.3%, n = 10 (7 hits, 3 misses)
Could this be luck? A fair coin would do at least this well about 17% of the time (7 of 10).
Excluded everywhere: 649 NO CALL, 36 pending. Period (reference closes): to . data: live database, read-only
Hourly 12h calls overlap and the three coins move together, so these counts are not independent samples; treat the test below as descriptive. That is a one-sided exact binomial test against a 50% coin flip. A small number here means luck is an unlikely explanation, not that the model makes money: fees take 0.2% from every trade.
last 20 graded calls at each point. Dashed line: coin flip.
circles: P(big up) vs how often the move beat +1%. squares: same for big down. On the dashed line means honest probabilities.
When the hourly job starts more than 18 minutes after the candle closes we skip that hour instead of predicting a past we can already half-see. Skipped hours are never backfilled. 0 in the last 7 days.
The 10 most confident calls that went the wrong way. Model was sure. Model was wrong. We printed it anyway. This is a hand-picked subset of the worst misses, not the record: every loss is in the ledger and the CSV.
| # | called | coin | h | call | lean | entry | exit | move | after fees | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1186 | BTC | 12h | no call | 56.5% | 62,625 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1187 | ETH | 12h | no call | 57.7% | 1,731 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1188 | SOL | 12h | UP | 59.3% | 67.86 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1180 | BTC | 12h | no call | 55.7% | 63,425 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1181 | ETH | 12h | UP | 58.5% | 1,741 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1182 | SOL | 12h | no call | 57.0% | 69.40 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1174 | BTC | 12h | no call | 55.5% | 64,150 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1175 | ETH | 12h | UP | 58.6% | 1,769 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1176 | SOL | 12h | no call | 56.8% | 70.28 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1168 | BTC | 12h | no call | 55.2% | 63,545 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1169 | ETH | 12h | UP | 58.4% | 1,745 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1170 | SOL | 12h | no call | 57.0% | 69.13 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1162 | BTC | 12h | no call | 54.7% | 64,456 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1163 | ETH | 12h | no call | 57.4% | 1,774 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1164 | SOL | 12h | no call | 57.3% | 69.91 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1156 | BTC | 12h | no call | 55.6% | 64,768 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1157 | ETH | 12h | UP | 59.6% | 1,784 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1158 | SOL | 12h | UP | 58.9% | 70.53 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1150 | BTC | 12h | no call | 53.4% | 65,728 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1151 | ETH | 12h | no call | 54.8% | 1,835 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1152 | SOL | 12h | no call | 55.3% | 72.24 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1144 | BTC | 12h | no call | 53.3% | 65,566 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1145 | ETH | 12h | no call | 55.3% | 1,831 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1146 | SOL | 12h | no call | 55.6% | 72.24 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1138 | BTC | 12h | no call | 52.7% | 65,902 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1139 | ETH | 12h | no call | 55.6% | 1,843 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1140 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.3% | 72.86 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1132 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.8% | 65,349 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1133 | ETH | 12h | no call | 53.8% | 1,826 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1134 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.0% | 72.42 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1126 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.2% | 65,742 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1127 | ETH | 12h | no call | 55.2% | 1,841 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1128 | SOL | 12h | no call | 52.8% | 73.89 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1120 | BTC | 12h | no call | 52.0% | 65,914 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1121 | ETH | 12h | no call | 55.9% | 1,854 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1122 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.2% | 74.09 | n/a | pending | |||
| 1114 | BTC | 12h | no call | 52.1% | 66,839 | 62,625 | −6.30% | sat out | ||
| 1115 | ETH | 12h | no call | 54.3% | 1,894 | 1,731 | −8.62% | sat out | ||
| 1116 | SOL | 12h | no call | 52.3% | 75.52 | 67.86 | −10.14% | sat out | ||
| 1108 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.0% | 66,998 | 63,425 | −5.33% | sat out | ||
| 1109 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.0% | 1,900 | 1,741 | −8.38% | sat out | ||
| 1110 | SOL | 12h | no call | 50.1% | 75.60 | 69.40 | −8.20% | sat out | ||
| 1102 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.4% | 67,273 | 64,150 | −4.64% | sat out | ||
| 1103 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.6% | 1,910 | 1,769 | −7.40% | sat out | ||
| 1104 | SOL | 12h | no call | 50.5% | 75.97 | 70.28 | −7.49% | sat out | ||
| 1096 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.7% | 67,292 | 63,545 | −5.57% | sat out | ||
| 1097 | ETH | 12h | no call | 53.0% | 1,909 | 1,745 | −8.60% | sat out | ||
| 1098 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.3% | 75.73 | 69.13 | −8.72% | sat out | ||
| 1090 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.6% | 67,412 | 64,456 | −4.39% | sat out | ||
| 1091 | ETH | 12h | no call | 53.5% | 1,914 | 1,774 | −7.30% | sat out | ||
| 1092 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.3% | 75.96 | 69.91 | −7.96% | sat out | ||
| 1084 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.2% | 66,998 | 64,768 | −3.33% | sat out | ||
| 1085 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.4% | 1,895 | 1,784 | −5.87% | sat out | ||
| 1086 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.3% | 75.25 | 70.53 | −6.27% | sat out | ||
| 1078 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.4% | 67,165 | 65,728 | −2.14% | sat out | ||
| 1079 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.6% | 1,898 | 1,835 | −3.33% | sat out | ||
| 1080 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.4% | 75.26 | 72.24 | −4.01% | sat out | ||
| 1072 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.2% | 67,376 | 65,566 | −2.69% | sat out | ||
| 1073 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.6% | 1,905 | 1,831 | −3.90% | sat out | ||
| 1074 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.4% | 75.72 | 72.24 | −4.60% | sat out | ||
| 1066 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.5% | 67,241 | 65,902 | −1.99% | sat out | ||
| 1067 | ETH | 12h | no call | 50.3% | 1,906 | 1,843 | −3.28% | sat out | ||
| 1068 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.4% | 76.00 | 72.86 | −4.13% | sat out | ||
| 1060 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.0% | 67,088 | 65,349 | −2.59% | sat out | ||
| 1061 | ETH | 12h | no call | 50.4% | 1,899 | 1,826 | −3.87% | sat out | ||
| 1062 | SOL | 12h | no call | 53.2% | 75.56 | 72.42 | −4.16% | sat out | ||
| 1054 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.4% | 66,756 | 65,742 | −1.52% | sat out | ||
| 1055 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.7% | 1,885 | 1,841 | −2.30% | sat out | ||
| 1056 | SOL | 12h | no call | 50.8% | 75.08 | 73.89 | −1.58% | sat out | ||
| 1048 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.2% | 67,682 | 65,914 | −2.61% | sat out | ||
| 1049 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.6% | 1,912 | 1,854 | −3.05% | sat out | ||
| 1050 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.3% | 76.22 | 74.09 | −2.79% | sat out | ||
| 1042 | BTC | 12h | no call | 50.7% | 68,290 | 66,839 | −2.12% | sat out | ||
| 1043 | ETH | 12h | no call | 50.5% | 1,928 | 1,894 | −1.78% | sat out | ||
| 1044 | SOL | 12h | no call | 53.6% | 77.05 | 75.52 | −1.99% | sat out | ||
| 1036 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.1% | 68,345 | 66,998 | −1.97% | sat out | ||
| 1037 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.5% | 1,932 | 1,900 | −1.66% | sat out | ||
| 1038 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.9% | 77.70 | 75.60 | −2.70% | sat out | ||
| 1030 | BTC | 12h | no call | 53.2% | 68,314 | 67,273 | −1.52% | sat out | ||
| 1031 | ETH | 12h | no call | 54.8% | 1,930 | 1,910 | −1.00% | sat out | ||
| 1032 | SOL | 12h | no call | 57.9% | 78.19 | 75.97 | −2.84% | sat out | ||
| 1024 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.8% | 68,254 | 67,292 | −1.41% | sat out | ||
| 1025 | ETH | 12h | no call | 51.9% | 1,924 | 1,909 | −0.75% | sat out | ||
| 1026 | SOL | 12h | no call | 55.6% | 77.67 | 75.73 | −2.50% | sat out | ||
| 1018 | BTC | 12h | no call | 52.1% | 68,398 | 67,412 | −1.44% | sat out | ||
| 1019 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.6% | 1,929 | 1,914 | −0.79% | sat out | ||
| 1020 | SOL | 12h | no call | 55.6% | 78.63 | 75.96 | −3.40% | sat out | ||
| 1009 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.3% | 68,914 | 66,998 | −2.78% | sat out | ||
| 1010 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.0% | 1,949 | 1,895 | −2.75% | sat out | ||
| 1011 | SOL | 12h | no call | 52.4% | 80.01 | 75.25 | −5.95% | sat out | ||
| 1003 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.4% | 69,061 | 67,165 | −2.74% | sat out | ||
| 1004 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.2% | 1,954 | 1,898 | −2.85% | sat out | ||
| 1005 | SOL | 12h | no call | 51.8% | 80.31 | 75.26 | −6.29% | sat out | ||
| 997 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.6% | 68,989 | 67,376 | −2.34% | sat out | ||
| 998 | ETH | 12h | no call | 52.7% | 1,945 | 1,905 | −2.03% | sat out | ||
| 999 | SOL | 12h | no call | 54.0% | 80.13 | 75.72 | −5.50% | sat out | ||
| 991 | BTC | 12h | no call | 52.2% | 68,944 | 67,241 | −2.47% | sat out | ||
| 992 | ETH | 12h | no call | 53.1% | 1,938 | 1,906 | −1.68% | sat out | ||
| 993 | SOL | 12h | no call | 55.1% | 79.98 | 76.00 | −4.98% | sat out | ||
| 985 | BTC | 12h | no call | 51.5% | 68,694 | 67,088 | −2.34% | sat out |
Showing 100 of 696. The CSV has every row.