Skip to content
HOPIUM
An AI that admits when it's wrong.
model v3-12h-logreg-20261104
BTC......ETH......SOL......connecting to tape
HOPIUM / receipt#1049
ETH
next 12h
NO CALL
called
stored (db clock)1.7 min after candle close
reference (1h close)$1,912
P(big up)34.2%
P(big down)29.0%
lean52.6% up
grades at
graded at (1h close)$1,854
move−3.05%
live, recorded before outcome
SAT OUT

Not financial advice. Crypto is unregulated and can be highly risky. Predictions are probabilistic and often wrong.

Receipt #1049

Stored , 1.7 minutes after the ETH reference candle closed at . The database stamps the storage time with its own clock and rejects inserts more than 20 minutes late. That is the operator's database, not an independent witness.

Graded . The price moved −3.05%. The model sat this one out.

Model v3-12h-logreg-20261108 (artifact, code commit and rules in the registry). Score 0.0522 against a threshold of 0.16. Database triggers reject edits, re-grading and deletes; someone with owner access to the database could still change them.

Timeline

data: live, recorded before outcome. times stored in UTC, shown in your time zone (hover for UTC)

scheduled slot / reference candle closemarket reference
input data cutoffjob-reported
job startedjob-reported
forecast generatedjob-reported
stored and publicly readabledatabase clock
outcome horizon ends (gradeable)rule
gradeddatabase clock

Generation latency: 1.7 min (job-reported). Publication latency: 1.7 min (database clock). Timestamps are in order.

Rules: grade-v1; |move| < 0.1% is FLAT (strict); exactly 0.1% is graded HIT/MISS; BIG_UP iff move > +k, BIG_DOWN iff move < -k (strict); fees 0.1% per side, 0.2% round trip; no slippage, spread, funding or taxes.

Tamper evidence

Chain position #626, committed (database clock).

payload sha256 5b4b761758a0b6fc27f7ad27e31b3ac1f80e0eb76db51963702105303011423f

Recomputed on this page from the live row: matches. Chain #1 to #626: every link recomputes.

Independent witness: covered by OpenTimestamps stamp of chain #627, submitted (proof file). Proves existence no later than that stamp's Bitcoin block, not the earlier storage time.

This page runs on the operator's server. To check without trusting it, run the standalone verifier (see How it works).

Verify this receipt

Download the evidence bundle (JSON: row, canonical payload, chain up to here, witness, model entry, Binance price URLs, outcome and fee arithmetic).

Check it yourself, no account or key needed: python3 tools/verify_receipt.py https://<this site>/r/1049/evidence (script). It re-fetches the Binance candles and recomputes the hash, the chain, the verdict and the fee. Arithmetic passing does not prove publication time; only a witness does.

Corrections: none. The original above is never edited; metrics use original grades. Challenge this receipt (GitHub issue).

All receipts